By Dr. Alejandro Díaz Bautista, Economist and Researcher (PhD)
Black Friday 2025 along the U.S.–Mexico border is expected to be a key event for cross-border shopping and logistics, with U.S. sales projected to surpass $10.6 billion and Mexico’s Buen Fin showing double-digit growth. The border region will experience intense commercial activity, supply chain pressures, and price fluctuations driven by new tariffs.
In the United States, Black Friday (November 28, 2025) marks the start of the holiday shopping season, while in Mexico, El Buen Fin (November 14–17, 2025) serves as its counterpart. Thousands of Mexican consumers cross into border cities such as El Paso, Laredo, Brownsville, and San Diego to take advantage of discounts, while U.S. shoppers visit Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez to benefit from Buen Fin promotions.
Online shopping dominates the season, with more than 70% of transactions made on mobile devices, alongside an increasing reliance on “Buy Now, Pay Later” options among cross-border consumers. Black Friday 2025 is shaping up to be a critical stress test for supply chains, placing pressure on warehouses, customs brokers, and carriers to meet fast-delivery expectations.
Nearshoring’s influence is clearly visible in 2025. Mexico’s expanding manufacturing base—electronics, apparel, and auto parts—supplies Black Friday demand in the United States, strengthening trade integration under the USMCA. Retailers are investing in automated warehouses and faster customs processes to handle the surge in cross-border e-commerce.
The new 2025 U.S. tariffs, including a 25% duty on imports from Mexico and Canada, are affecting consumer prices and business strategies. Nearly 22% of U.S. shoppers have moved up their holiday purchases to avoid price increases. Despite this, U.S. holiday spending is projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, while Mexico’s Buen Fin continues its rapid growth. Shopping centers in El Paso, Laredo, and San Diego benefit from heavy foot traffic, though congestion and long wait times at ports of entry remain a challenge.
Black Friday 2025 represents both a commercial boom and a logistical test for the border region. Although tariffs and inflation are shaping consumer behavior, spending remains strong. Cross-border dynamics continue to link Black Friday and Buen Fin, solidifying the border as a strategic hub for North America’s holiday economy.
Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista is a Research Professor of International Economics at El Colef and a distinguished member of Mexico’s National System of Researchers. He has taught at Universidad Iberoamericana and CISE, served as a fellow and guest scholar at UCSD, and been a visiting professor at UC Irvine.
